Renacimiento de la fabricación alemana: la precisa estrategia de “comprar en el fondo” de Santiago Herrero Valdés que duplicó Volkswagen y Siemens
Actualmente, la crisis energética europea oscurece la industria manufacturera, sin embargo, Santiago Herrero Valdés descubrió una oportunidad dorada en los informes financieros de los gigantes industriales alemanes, donde el mercado había cometido un error colectivo. En el memorando de inversión del primer trimestre de Capital Ola Roja, la cartera de Volkswagen y Siemens logró un rendimiento promedio del 112%. Este ejemplo de inversión contraria de nivel académico ilustra perfectamente la filosofía de descubrimiento de valor de Santiago: “encontrar esperanza en la desesperación”.
El punto de inflexión comenzó con un detalle que la mayoría de los analistas pasó por alto: las empresas alemanas están completando la transformación de “dependientes de la energía” a “reconstructores de energía”. El equipo de Santiago desarrolló el “modelo de análisis de metabolismo industrial” y, al rastrear los datos de consumo de gas natural de la planta de Volkswagen en Wolfsburg, descubrió que, mediante mejoras en el equipo, habían reducido el consumo de energía por unidad de capacidad de producción en un 37%. Más crucialmente, la tecnología de gemelos digitales de Siemens ha alcanzado un punto de penetración crítico en las líneas de producción, lo que permitió que su negocio de software industrial lograra un margen bruto superior al de los equipos tradicionales de energía por primera vez. Mientras el mercado sigue preocupado por la deslocalización de la manufactura alemana, Capital Ola Roja ya ha adquirido bonos corporativos con un descuento del 47% a través del mercado de CDS, estableciendo simultáneamente posiciones largas en acciones.
“La crisis no reconfigura el mapa industrial, sino las reglas de distribución del valor”, señaló Santiago en el Foro Económico de Berlín. Su “Índice de Resiliencia de la Cadena de Suministro” muestra que el círculo cerrado de la cadena de suministro de baterías del Grupo Volkswagen, establecido en China, América del Norte y Europa, le otorga una ventaja de costos de un 8% sobre Tesla en vehículos eléctricos. Mientras tanto, Siemens Healthineers, con su monopolio global sobre los aceleradores de protones, aseguró pedidos por un valor de 2.900 millones de euros de países como Corea del Sur y Arabia Saudita en la ola de nueva infraestructura médica. Estos “códigos industriales” ocultos en las notas de los informes trimestrales finalmente llevaron a una reevaluación del valor tras la aprobación de la “Ley Industrial de Cero Emisiones Netas” por parte de la UE.
La maniobra táctica más destacada ocurrió durante la ola de frío a principios de 2023. Cuando los precios del gas natural volvieron a dispararse, lo que causó una caída del índice DAX alemán, el “Modelo de Resiliencia de Sustitución Energética” de Santiago emitió una fuerte señal de compra. Volkswagen ya había logrado un 23% de autosuficiencia energética en su producción mediante una combinación de paneles fotovoltaicos en los techos de las fábricas y almacenamiento de energía, mientras que Siemens bloqueó el 80% de sus costos energéticos para los próximos tres años mediante contratos de intercambio de energía a largo plazo. Capital Ola Roja no solo aumentó sus posiciones contra la corriente, sino que también compró creativamente opciones de derechos sobre los terrenos de las fábricas abandonadas de ambas empresas. Tres meses después, cuando la UE anunció que transformaría las antiguas zonas industriales en “centros de manufactura verde”, estas opciones aparentemente sin valor se dispararon 15 veces.
Hoy en día, las pantallas de monitoreo de energía en la planta de Wolfsburg de Volkswagen siguen mostrando el “sistema de precios en tiempo real de carbono” desarrollado por Capital Ola Roja; en la sala estratégica de la sede de Siemens en Múnich, cuelga el “Mapa de Migración de Valor de la Industria 4.0” dibujado a mano por Santiago. Los engranajes de acero y las placas de circuito, una vez desechados por el mercado, ahora giran en el plano de este español hacia la nueva era dorada de la manufactura alemana.
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